Meteorology: Predicting the Weather (Innovators, 12) Predicting the Weather by Looking at the Moon Meteorology: Observing, Understanding, and Predicting Weather NOAA's FY 2002 budget : predicting weather and climate : hearing before the Subcommittee on Environment, Technology, and Standards, Committee on Science, House of Representatives, One Hundred Seventh Congress, first session, May 9, 2001 (SuDoc Y 4.SCI 2:107-28) Weather for Outdoorsmen: A Complete Guide to Understanding and Predicting Weather in Mountains and Valleys, on the Water, and in the Woods Weather Predicting Weather Predicting by Astro-Meteorology Systems for evaluating and predicting the effects of weather and climate on wildland fires

• Since 1986, severe weather has racked the insurance industry with unprecedented losses, and industry studies indicate that more than $14 billion a year could be saved with better forecasts. ...
• Zeroing in on Stormy Weather.
• The weather reports we watch on TV derive from computer models at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction that predict atmospheric structure over the continental United States as often as every three hours. The local forecaster extracts from these models to show a regional map, covering perhaps several states, with predictions that weather the next day will be rainy, cloudy, sunny, etc. ...
• CAPS' goal is to develop storm-scale forecasting to the point where it can be turned over to the National Weather Service early in the next century. ...
• In 1993, running on the CRAY C90 with limited data and a limited version of the model, forecasters used ARPS information in an official National Weather Service forecast. ...
• In 1996, the spring operational test incorporated several model improvements, including more detail at ground level, that resulted in better temperature forecasts and more precision in predicting the time when storms would develop. ...
• If you can't predict the weather significantly faster than it evolves, the prediction has no value. ...
• During spring 1995 and again in 1996, the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms at the University of Oklahoma used the Cray T3D to produce a daily weather forecast for parts of Oklahoma. ...
• Keywords: weather, forecasting, storm, storms, storm prediction, storm warning, tornado, tornadoes, supercells, weather models, Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS), CAPS, Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms. ...

• Predicting the Transport of Airborne Hazardous Material .
• The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) supported the Department of Defense (DoD) during the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics by developing and deploying an advanced operational computer-based weather forecast system. The forecasted weather variables were used as input to a DoD system that calculated the transport of hazardous material from potential releases. ...
• Predicting Plume Transport For Metropolitan Areas.
• NCAR has developed a sophisticated wind analysis and forecasting capability that uses operational National Weather Service (NWS) weather-radar data, in combination with other standard weather data, to predict detailed wind patterns in the lower atmosphere. ... The large changes in the plume transport were due to rapidly changing wind patterns, which can only be detected using remote sensors like weather radar coupled with sophisticated analysis software. ...
• Predicting Plume Transport Within Cities.
• The wind data must be obtained from a lidar that is specifically deployed for this purpose because there is no operational lidar network, as there is for weather radars. ...
• An Operational Weather Forecasting System Developed for Army Test Ranges.
• During the last seven years, NCAR has been developing and deploying high-resolution, computer-based weather analysis and forecasting systems for the Army Test and Evaluation Command (ATEC). ... One important aspect of this relationship is the process by which we regularly and seamlessly upgrade the forecasting and weather-product-delivery systems as new science and technology permit, and provide continued user training on these evolving systems. These users are like many that work in high-stress, weather-sensitive settings in that they have very little time for an in-depth analysis of complex weather products. ... The outer boxes represent the large-scale weather conditions, and the inner boxes progressively focus more on the details of the winds and other variables in the center.
• Providing Decision-Support Systems and Weather Products to Emergency Responders.
• It is critical that first responders have information about weather and hazardous-material transport quickly and in a convenient form. Therefore, NCAR is developing methods for making the required weather and hazard information available on portable devices such as cell phones and Personal Digital Assistants (PDA). ... This information is then transmitted to a centralized weather-forecast system that predicts the expected track of the hazardous materials and sends a graphical product back to the emergency responder’s PDA. ...

• Weather.
• Weather conditions have a considerable effect on everyday choices, such as what clothes to wear, as well as larger decisions, such as when to plant crops. Historically, people have tried to divine the coming weather by observing indicators like animal behavior. ...
• Predicting the weather for a local area can be a matter of critical importance. Pilots rely on accurate weather forecasts for the safety of their passengers. ... Satellite tracking of tropical weather allows communities to evacuate or at least prepare for the incoming storms. ...
• Weather is the condition of the atmosphere at a particular place and time.  Climate, by contrast, refers to long-term trends in weather over a long period of time. As one old saying puts it, "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get. ...
• An example of the relationship between weather and climate is El Niño. A very important variable for some areas in predicting weather, El Niño, or more specifically ENSO (El Niño/ Southern Oscillation), has both weather and climatic importance. ...
• Weather forecasters have significantly better tools for forecasting weather.  To make predictions, weather forecasters rely on observations of atmospheric conditions, including temperature, humidity, pressure, wind speed, and its direction. ...
• National Weather Service .
• For information on forecasting and about the weather in general, the first place to turn is the National Weather Service. In existence since 1870, it is the authority in weather prediction in the United States, and has a Climate Prediction Center that studies long term weather conditions and changes.  Many other weather programs that can be found through NOAA's Weather Page.

• WEATHER STATION.
• Randy Cerveny is a weather detective. ...
• Cerveny's work has little to do with tomorrow's weather forecast. Instead, his work focuses on long-term weather changes— everything from predicting global warming to establishing safety guidelines for a planned nuclear waste site. ...
• "Predicting weather 10,000 years from now is actually a lot easier than predicting if it will rain tomorrow," Cerveny says. "With tomorrow's weather, we're looking at one small slice in time. ...
• If temperatures shift that slowly, why should we worry about Cerveny's work? Because even the slightest temperature change can dramatically shift the balance of climate and affect weather patterns. ...
• Cerveny and Shaffer began their quest by studying weather records that have existed for hundreds of years. ...
• The ASU scientists tried to gather the most reliable long-term, scientific weather information available. However, most places that have recorded weather for a really long time are far away from Yucca Mountain. ...
• Could weather information from far away places be used to reliably predict weather at Nevada's Yucca Mountain site? .
• Luckily, long-term weather information—called climate data—is also available for a site in New Mexico. ...
• Devil's Hole also exhibits weather patterns that are similar to those found near Yucca Mountain. ... Using this data, they could better predict weather at the nuclear waste storage site. ...
• The ASU weather detectives believe they've solved their case. ...

• Bibliography--Predicting Winds and Weather .
• Mariner's Weather. ...
• Weather Proverbs. ...
• Weather in Hawaiian Waters. Honolulu: Pacific Weather Inc. ...
• Weather for the Mariner (3rd edition), Annapolis: The Naval Institute Press, 1963.
• Prevailing Trade Winds: Weather and Climate in Hawai'i. ...

• Ocean Weather Prediction System Developed .
• Allan Robinson has developed the first system to provide instant forecasts of weather anywhere within the world's oceans. ...
• As Gordon McKay Professor of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (the ocean is a geophysical fluid), he has been working on a system to predict weather within the oceans since the early 1980s. ...
• He says that the Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS) is the first practical system that can be deployed to any region of the world ocean to provide instant forecasts of ocean weather, as well as information about creatures from whales to single-celled floating plants.
• "We assimilate yesterday’s data into today’s forecast of tomorrow’s weather in the ocean," Robinson notes. ...
• These forecasts have been used for avoiding "enemy" submarines and mines during naval war games, predicting the fertility of coastal and open-ocean waters, understanding the ocean’s input to global warming, and even tracing the route of a dead whale. ...
• During the Cold War, for example, the system was used for finding Soviet submarines hiding behind deep-sea weather fronts.
• Such practical operations include research efforts to help understand how the ocean interacts with the atmosphere to change weather and climate. ...
• Both ways, HOPS is contributing to a new view of the ocean as a place with as much weather as the atmosphere. ...

• Weather and Climate > Rain and cloudiness > Info on radars.
• Marine weather.
• Local weather.
• Weather stations.
• Weather in Europe.
• Weather radar in rain observations.
• The Finnish Meteorological Institute produces weather radar images for the public, its own and clients use. ...
• However, predicting weather is not always as straightforward as implied. ...
• The Finnish weather radar network. ...

• The Winter Ahead: Predicting Seasonal Climate.
• Meteorologists are able to predict the weather a week into the future with a significant degree of accuracy. ...
• Oddly, it is anomalies in global climate that allow weather experts to make slightly more exact seasonal predictions. ... El Niño makes seasonal weather prediction easier because seasonal climate is influenced by the global distribution of heat in the oceans. Predicting seasonal trends is easier when an unusually large amount of that heat is concentrated in one area. ...
• Winter weather patterns vary according to where the trough or dip in the jet stream is during the winter months, but the jet stream pattern varies from month to month. ... The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has been studied far less than the El Niño/ La Niña phenomenon, but it has significant impacts on weather and climate. ...
• It is especially important for those in less developed countries, who are more vulnerable to weather surprises, to have accurate forecasts of the months ahead. ... Seasonal weather forecasts can have a powerful effect on commodities markets, and, in turn, on the allocation of scarce resources that might help ward off shortages. ... Both long-term and short-term predictions of weather can provide critical information.
• There are a number of research projects underway in which scientists are trying to gain a better understanding of the complex interactions between the oceans and atmosphere that effect climate and weather. ... As more is learned, meteorologists will be able to refine their predictions for long-term seasonal weather trends. To learn more about weather forecasting, see these sites: .
• USA Today: Uncertain Weather Forecast For Much of USA .
• National Weather Service: Climate Prediction Center (CPC) .
• Government's main organization for longer-range weather and climate prediction. ...

• ED O'LENIC, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
• On Groundhog's Day, Ed O'Lenic, a long-term seasonal forecaster for the National Weather Service,answers questions about the harsh weather most of the U. ... O'Lenic predicts weather patterns at least three months in advance. ...
• Why is it harder to predict weather conditions in coastal regions than inland? .
• Since most weather records cover only the last 150--200 years, it seems to me that trying to predict a serious change in the weather is like trying to predict what the weather will be next week or on June 27, 1997. ...
• The limits of weather computer models:.
• What methods are you using to overcome one of the big problems of long-range forecasting for any chaotic system: extreme sensitivity to initial conditions? I thought that forecasting the weather beyond four or five days with any accuracy was next to impossible. ...
• Do we know that trends of weather are measurable in decades and not in centuries? How far back do we really have accurate records? Can we tell by looking at our recent data how the trends of the past are changing? The weather may be changing day to day or year to year, but what about decade to decade? How do we know our information is not partial information?.
• Can we control the weather?.
• Weather forecasting has improved dramatically over the last 15 years, especially in the 3 to 6 day forecasts. ...
• My question has to do with controlling the weather. Do you think there will be much progress in the next 20 years in controlling, or moderating, destructive weather events, such as droughts, floods, hurricanes, and tornados. ...
• I, for one, would have more confidence in medium and long range forecasts if, along with the familiar charts of weather trends, we were shown similar charts displaying exactly how the weather over the most recent like periods actually happened. ...
• This past year has seen violent weather across the country. ... Is there any hope for accurate 3 month trends predicting for the future?.

• THE WEATHER PREDICTION. ...
• -The grand site of weather analysis and forecasting education- .
• WEATHER PREDICTION EDUCATION AND RESOURCES .
• Haby Hints reaches milestone (366, one for each day of year)- click here for weather hints.
• Weather Experiments link is complete- click here for basic wx experiments.
• Humor: more 2004 weather predictions- click here for details.
• Weather jargon link has been updated- click here for wx jargon.
• DOES GOD CONTROL THE WEATHER?.
• THE WEATHER CHANNEL: TO LIKE OR NOT TO LIKE?.
• CURRENT ONLINE WEATHER DATA .
• WEATHER DATA.
• THE SOIL MOISTURE'S IMPACT ON WEATHER PREDICTION.
• PREDICTING HAIL WITH THE SKEW-T.
• SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION (INFLUENCE OF PREVIOUS WEATHER).
• CLASSIC HABY WEATHER JOKES .
• TV WEATHER.

• David Rokeby : Predicting the Weather .
• It is his job to predict the weather, and he fails over an .
• the atmosphere is more intimate than earth's and we personally affect the weather. ...
• doubting the weather instead of the weatherman. ... ("The Soviets are controlling our weather") .
• (Weather is becoming interactive. ...

• Weather Information.
•    Live SPC Weather.
• Fire Weather Forecasts.
• Please refer to local WFO fire weather forecasts for specific fire weather watches and red flag warnings.
• Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily).
• * * * * * Click here to send input/comments to the fire weather forecaster. ...
• ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 160742 DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 AM CDT FRI APR 16 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z. ... THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BE MORE ACTIVE BEGINNING TODAY WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE WEST COAST. ... EFFECTS OF RECENT PRECIPITATION ON VEGETATION ARE HELPING TO MINIMIZE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ...
• ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 160749 DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 AM CDT FRI APR 16 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z. ...
• Experimental Fire Weather Graphic Products .
• Related Fire Weather Web Links .

• Weather Predicting Simplified: How to Read Weather Charts and Satellite Images (International Marine)  .
• Buy Weather Predicting Simplified: How to Read Weather Charts. ... with Weather for Dummies (For Dummies) today! .
• Weather (Collins Gem S. ...
• Dictionary of Weather (Oxford Paperback Reference S. ...
• Cambridge Guide to the Weather, The; Paperback ~ Ross Reynolds, et al .
• The Weather Wizard's Cloud Book: How You Can Forecast the Weather Accurately and Easily by Reading the Clouds; Paperback ~ Louis D. ...
• Ocean Sailing: Celestial Navigation, Weather, Passage Planning; Paperback ~ Tom Cunliffe Explore similar items. ...
• Make your own weather forecasts with confidence!.
• Comparing simultaneous NOAA weather charts and satellite photos of the same weather events, author and weather expert Michael William Carr shows you how to spot weather systems in the images and accurately predict winds and conditions in your immediate area.
• Learn how weather develops; warm and cold fronts; high and low pressure systems; jet streams; tropical storms; and all the other weather features you will encounter on charts and satellite photos.
• "With this book there is no reason for prudent mariners to be surprised by imperfect weather forecasts or local conditions that general forecasts may not cover. ...
• Captain Michael William Carr, a renowned weather expert, is a contributing editor for Ocean Navigator magazine, and has appeared in SAIL and Professional Mariner magazines. He has taught basic and advanced weather seminars for nonspecialists, as well as a course on marine weather at the WoodenBoat School. He has supplied marine weather predictions and voyage routing to many mariners, including participants in the Around Alone circumnavigation race. He currently teaches weather routing at the Maritime Institute of Technology and Graduate Studies in Maryland. ...

• Predicting the Future vs. ... Many professionals are involved in predictive activities, including doctors, counselors, environmental professionals, stock-brokers, weather forecasters etc. ... For example, if you state that the weather on June 3, 2003 in Seattle will be sunny and 75 degrees, I will think you're fortune-telling. If it is August, and a weather forecaster predicts that next week in Tucson, Arizona, the weather will be hot and sunny based on the current weather, a reading of the weather charts, and historic records of weather patterns, I would be inclined to rely on that prediction, and take sunblock and a floppy hat on my vacation there. ... I also believe that any system used for predicting the timing of events should include cards that tell you whether or not the timing *can* be predicted - a system that makes a blind assumption that any event can be timed is unrealistic. ...

• Title:  Predicting Weather with a Meteorologist.
• Standards:  Science  3040-06  Students will observe, record, analyze and predict weather. ...
• Objectives:  Science  3040-0601  Identify the elements of weather.   3040-0602 Measure and record elements of weather.   3040-0603 Predict weather based on qualitative and quantitative observations. ...
• The students will know about the different devices that a Meteorologist uses to predict, measure, and record the elements of weather.   In small groups, the students will create one of three weather measuring devices.   The class will use these devices to help them predict, measure, and record weather, just like a Meteorologist does. ...
•   Supplies for each weather device (see each individual list).
•   Book:  What Will the Weather Be Like Today?”  by Paul Rogers, pictures by Kazuko, published by Scholastic.
•   At least one week to record and graph the weather device results. ...
•   Invite a parent volunteer in to help make the weather devices. ...
•  Invite them to bring in an actual barometer, thermometer, and an anemometer that they use to study weather. ...
•    As an introduction, before introducing the Meteorologist, read the book, “What Will the Weather Be Like Today?”  by Paul Rogers, pictures by Kazuko, published by Scholastic. ...
•   Have the Meteorologist explain each of the instruments, demonstrate how each one of them is used, and how the weather information from each device is gathered and displayed. ...
• There are a lot of devices that Meteorologists use to predict and measure weather. ...

•     Weather  .
• --> Reading Weather Road Signs.
• A new El Nino may drive this year's cropping season Predicting weather, especially long-term, is a dicey deal. But weather prognosticators say some road signs help head them in the right direction.
• "The weather-producing conditions in the Pacific Ocean are resting between El Nino and La Nina. ...
• It's a cooling-off of the Pacific in mid-latitudes that typically brings hotter and drier weather to the continental U. ...
• "We may begin to see the moderating effects of El Nino by May or June, with cooler and wetter than normal weather across the Corn Belt through most of summer. ...
• Larry Acker of 3F Forecasts, Polo, IL, agrees that El Nino is rebuilding, and should affect summer weather patterns for many regions. ...
• "Overall, planting should be done on time, with few weather-related delays," he adds. ...
• But, at this point, he's predicting that 72. ...

• WEATHER FORECASTING .
• Predicting the micro-weather.
• Weather forecasting: High-resolution weather forecasting is becoming increasingly sophisticated.
• IF THE use of a single, simplistic symbol—a sun, a cloud or a snowflake—to represent the weather for several hours over an entire city annoys you, you are not alone. Surely it ought to be possible to generate more detailed, finer-grained forecasts, neighbourhood by neighbourhood, hour by hour, which could be delivered over the web or beamed to a mobile phone? It is, and in some parts of the world such “high-resolution” weather forecasts are already available.
• Historically, both groups have relied on government weather services—such as America's National Weather Service (NWS) and Britain's Met Office—which provide forecasts with a granularity of tens or hundreds of kilometres. ... But weather can vary considerably over short distances and short time-spans. Consider Hawaii, where you can find desert next to rain forest; or San Francisco, where the weather can change from one neighbourhood to the next. ...
• Predicting the micro-weather .
• National Weather Service, Met Office, WeatherBug, AccuWeather, MyWeather, Meteorlogix, IBM Deep Thunder, Weather Research and Forecasting Model.
• Companies operating in transportation, construction, shipping, aviation, utilities, sports, media, emergency services, and a host of other areas also need to make decisions based on weather predictions. The NWS estimates that weather forecasts save America's airlines around $500m a year: avoiding a cancellation saves $40,000, and avoiding a diversion costs $150,000, for example. ...
• Energy companies, which must forecast how much capacity their customers will use, are particularly sensitive to changes in the weather. ... This fine balancing act is performed using “load models” which use historical consumption records and weather forecasts to calculate how much power is needed, and which generators should be used.
• “At critical temperatures, even a relatively small difference in the weather can make a substantial difference in energy consumption,” says Joel Myers, president of AccuWeather, a forecasting firm based in State College, Pennsylvania. ...
• Bridgeline, a company that operates gas pipelines in Louisiana, uses AccuWeather's high-resolution forecasts to monitor “severe weather events” in the Gulf of Mexico that could affect gas supply. ...

• "How can I calibrate it to match the Weather Service?" .
• READING THE BAROMETER A barometer is a device for predicting weather changes, rather than one for giving you an instant readout of current conditions. A change in the level of the mercury indicates the passage of a high or low pressure front over your area, and a corresponding change in weather. Falling atmospheric pressure precedes stormy or unsettled conditions, and a rise indicates the approach of settled weather. Weather indications are written on the face of your barometer to guide you.
• In the absence of violent weather conditions, the atmospheric pressure over the large land mass of the United States seldom varies more than half an inch above or below the 30-inch mark (at sea level). ...
• The most common these days is The Weather Channel on cable tv, or the evening weather news. ...
• As you become accustomed to using a barometer, you'll learn to trust the weather predictions on the register plate or the dial, and forget the actual numbers altogether. ...
• Weather Service, and repeated by most television weather broadcasts,are mathematically corrected for elevation above sea level, so that weather reporting across the continent can use standard nomenclature and also so that the weather stations don't have to have custom-built barometers for their readings. ...
• MAKING YOUR READING MATCH THE WEATHER SERVICE.
• As long as the mercury level drops when a storm is coming and rises for fair weather, that is really enough of an indicator to make it a good predicting device. ...
• 31, and the weather news says the current barometric pressure is 29. ...

• Predicting the weather - in space Thursday, 30 September 1999.
• Predicting the weather in space is fast becoming the focus of international research.
• By monitoring auroras through a new radar system on Tasmania's Bruny Island, Australian scientists hope to find ways of better predicting extremes of space weather.

• Data Privacy, Emergency Response, Weather Prediction to Benefit from Information Technology Advances.
• —Protecting individual privacy in a networked world, getting the right information at the right time for emergency response, predicting high-impact local weather such as thunderstorms, and monitoring wetlands with networks of mobile robotic sensors are the challenges being addressed by four of the eight large projects funded this year by the National Science Foundation (NSF) in the Information Technology Research (ITR) program.
• Predicting High-Impact Local Weather.
• Today's weather forecast models run on fixed schedules over fixed regions, independent of the type of weather that may be occurring. This project will develop grid-computing environments for on-demand detection, simulation and prediction of high-impact local weather, such as thunderstorms and lake-effect snows. With new tools for orchestrating complex flows of information, hazardous weather detection systems and forecast models will be able to reconfigure themselves in response to evolving weather and also guide the operation of observing systems such as Doppler radars to provide optimal input for the models. ... Ultimately, this project will help reduce the hundreds of lives lost and $13 billion of economic damage that hazardous weather causes each year in the United States.

• NOAA's Weather and Climate Prediction Budget.
• We no longer view this climate information as simply the average of a large set of weather records. ...
• The research community and every sector of climate-related decision-makers, from the weather derivatives industry to those assessing the potential impacts of future climate change, calls for a stable, sustained, high quality observational base to the U. ...
• Many of these observations are combined with forecast models through an assimilation process that yields the de facto record of global weather and climate. ...
• In addition, some states, notably Okalahoma with its "Oklahoma Mesonet" have created enterprises that develop and promote powerful and useful climate and weather products that serve a variety of public and private needs within the state. ...
• In many ways, such state enterprises have enormous potential to link local weather and climate to local and state needs. ...
• The Nature of the Problem: The driving forces that alter environmental quality and integrity are widely recognized, involving primarily weather and climate, patterns of land use and land cover, and resource use with its associated waste products. ...
• The observations are driven by very different mission needs and tend to focus on the measurement of discrete variables at a specific set of locations designed to serve the different needs of weather forecasting, pollution monitoring, hydrologic forecasting, or other objectives. ...
• we have the potential to (a) link observing systems into a web of integrated sensors building upon existing weather and hydrologic stations and remote sensing capability, (b) create the agreements across a set of more limited agencies and federal, state and local governments needed to create a structure to the observing system, (c) provide a compelling framework that encourages or demands the integration of new observations into a broader strategy, and (d) create strong linkages between research and operational observations that result in mutual benefit. ...
• Global weather and climate models provide the strongest physical foundation for more comprehensive environmental predictive capability. ... As we attempt to produce predictions at the scale of human endeavors, mesoscale models (capable of predicting synoptic weather systems) are increasingly becoming the focal point of weather and climate studies because of their potential to make predictions on the scale of river systems, cities, agriculture and forestry. ...
• This capability, built upon the numerical framework of weather and climate models, can be extended to air quality, water quantity and quality, ecosystem health, human health, agriculture, and a host of other areas.
• From Research to Operations in Weather Satellites and Numerical Weather Prediction. ...

• Non-Instrument Weather Forecasting.
• Low: The appearance and movement of clouds are used to forecast weather.
• Before the invention of modern weather instruments, seafarers relied on observations of nature to predict weather; today, while weather station and buoy reports, National Weather Service forecasts, and satellite photos are excellent sources of weather information, a mariner should also understand seasonal weather patterns and be able to read signs in the environment both before and during a trip: the wind, sea state, clouds, appearance of celestial bodies, smells, and animal behavior contain clues to current and approaching weather. The art of non-instrument weather forecasting can be used to confirm weather reports or to predict weather when instruments and reports are not available.
• Basic to any observation of weather for sailing is knowing the direction and strength of the wind. ...
• Shifts in wind direction may indicate changes in weather. ... Low pressure systems that remain stationary to the west of the islands bring warm, humid air from the south, and we experience a period of mugginess called Kona weather.
• While not directly related to weather, currents affect the sea state: "A strong current flowing against the wind causes an enhanced chop and steepness to the seas, whereas a current flowing with the wind diminishes the seas just as dramatically. ...
• Grimble notes that navigators in the Gilbert Island observe the ocean surface to determine the strength of currents before departure: "Before setting sail in the fair weather season, a Gilbertese mariner will sometimes spend several days in looking at the sea. ...
• David Seidman writes, "Clouds are the harbingers of weather. ...
• "High clouds are associated with the upper atmosphere and distant weather systems up to six hours away. If they are wispy and white, the weather will be fine. Lower clouds relate to the current weather or that which is soon to come. ... Lowering or gathering usually brings wet weather. Lifting or dispersing means the weather will improve. ...
• The following classification of clouds and information about the significance of types of clouds are from Weather for the Mariner by William J. ...

• Predicting the weather with Linux at the National Weather Service Tuesday January 28, 2003 - 08:14 AM GMT       Topics: Government and Regulatory , Linux , Open Source - By Norbert Cartagena -.
• But can Linux really live up to all the hype? The National Weather Service (NWS) thinks so. ...
• Paul Kirkwood, Branch Chief of the Dissemination Enhancement Team at Southern Region headquarters, says, "I do see the future of the weather service moving towards the Linux environment. ...
• "We put together a team and asked 'Where do we need to go in the future of the weather service? Where do we need to be?'" They found that they got a two-to-one performance advantage by moving over to Linux on Intel hardware, according to benchmark tests, and received approval for the transition from both the CIO and the Director of the NWS. ...
• They also use it extensively for their Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS), allowing them to prepare their forecasts and view their model data. ...
• It's a tool for meteorologists and hydrologists, which allows forecasters to visually integrate meteorological information they need from surface observation, satellite data, and Doppler RADAR information in order to generate weather warnings and forecasts on one three-headed desktop. ...
• And fast, accurate weather forecasting is what the National Weather Service is all about. ...
• · National Weather Service.
• Comments:  Predicting the weather with Linux at the National Weather Service Top  |  18 comments  |  Search Discussion  |   .
• And now, the weather (Score:0) .
• 05 11:25 (#42265) It would be great if they applied some Open Source ingenuity to their core mission, namely the distribution of weather information. Where are the RSS weather forecasts? Where's the realtime XML weather data? Here's hoping the Open Source vibe brings that stuff along faster. ...
• Re:And now, the weather by Anonymous Reader (Score:0) 2003. ...
• The Skywarn group that works with the weather service and this site have been able to give live data on what is happening on the ground in real time back to the weather service while weather events are in progress. ...

• However, individual weather systems - midlatitude depressions, or tropical convective cells - occur "randomly", and it is accepted that weather cannot be predicted beyond a fairly short limit: perhaps a month in theory, or (currently) about ten days in practice (see Chaos theory). ...
• Earth's weather results from the interactions of three large circulation cells.
• As well, their thermal characteristics override the effects of weather in their domain. The sheer volume of energy the Hadley cell transports, and the depth of the heat sink that is the Polar cell ensures, that the effects of transient weather phenomena are not only not felt by the system as a whole, but— except under unusual circumstances— are not even permitted to form. ...
• ” While the Trade Winds and the Polar Easterlies have nothing over which to prevail, their parent circulation cells having taken care of any competition they might have to face, the Westerlies are at the mercy of passing weather systems. ...
• The base of the Ferrel cell is characterized by the movement of air masses, and the location of these air masses is influenced in part by the location of the jet stream, which acts as a collector for the air carried aloft by surface lows ( a look at a weather map will show that surface lows follow the jet stream). ...
• The Pacific Ocean cell plays a particularly important role in Earth's weather. ...
• The Pacific cell is of such importance that it has been named the Walker circulation after Sir Gilbert Walker, an early-20th-century director of British observatories in India, who sought a means of predicting when the monsoon winds would fail. ...
• Under "normal" circumstances, the weather behaves as expected. ...

• A weather eye on unpredictability .
• Now,meteorologists are using chaos to assess how reliable climate and weather forecasts are. Tim Palmer EVERY DAY, meteorologists try to predict next week's weather using immensely complicated mathematical descriptions of how the atmosphere behaves. ...
• So, are these attempts at longer-range weather and climate prediction a waste of time? Should we content ourselves with the television forecast of tomorrow's weather, and leave the rest to chance? .
• Although the weather can change every day as individual systems progress eastwards, depressions and their associated weather fronts, for example, certain spells of weather can last for weeks, months or even whole seasons. These spells are not characterised by individual weather systems, but by the position of the so-called jet streams, regions of strong wind in the upper atmosphere. ...
• As a result of the Coriolis effect, it is thermodynamically efficient to flux heat energy towards the poles through the depressions and anticyclones that we call weather systems.
• Mathematically, we can describe these weather systems as fluid-dynamical instabilities of a spherical shell of rotating fluid, which is heated over the equator and cooled over the poles. ... The weather systems also flux momentum into middle latitudes from the tropics. ... The positions of the jet streams are not fixed in space and time, but meander, over distances of about 10000 kilometres, longer length-scales than those associated with individual weather systems (see Figure 1). The positions of the jet streams can be used to define large-scale weather regimes; those determining the general pattern of weather experienced, say, during a period of a week or more, settled or unsettled, for example. ...
• Although individual weather systems are instabilities of the larger-scale flow, they play a major role in maintaining the meanders of the jet stream on a planetary scale. From a mathematical point of view, this feedback between individual weather system instabilities and the larger-scale flow is a nonlinear process. ... The evolution of a chaotic system is sensitive to the precise specification of the initial state; this means that irrespective of how complex our models become, or how accurate our weather data are, the laws of science impose a limit beyond which prediction of the weather is impossible. ...
• Figure 1 shows the track of the jet stream over the Atlantic and Europe, which is associated with two different weather "regimes". ... Individual weather Systems tend to be steered along the jet stream. Over the British Isles, this configuration would probably give a rather wet and unsettled spell of weather, as rain bands pass by with monotonous regularity. ... In the summer, this configuration brings about a warm fine spell of weather over Britain; in the winter, it produces dull, overcast, and possibly very cold weather. ...

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